As someone who’s spent more than four decades helping clients navigate real estate at Lake of the Ozarks, I’ve seen firsthand how dramatically housing costs can differ from state to state. For example, in 2026, Hawaii tops the charts with a cost index of 302.4, while Oklahoma sits at the lowest end with 66.9. States like Massachusetts, D.C., California, and New York are also on the higher end, whereas much of the South and Midwest—regions many of my clients consider—remain more affordable. Understanding these differences is key to making informed decisions, and it’s just one part of the smooth, stress-free experience I strive to provide for every client.

As someone who’s watched the Lake of the Ozarks market evolve for over four decades, I keep a close eye on how broader economic shifts might impact our local real estate landscape. Recent labor data is pointing to slower job growth, and while unemployment has dipped a bit, that’s largely due to fewer people participating in the workforce. These trends can influence mortgage rates, and it’s worth noting that rates may remain below 7% into 2026. However, with inflation pressures still on the horizon and the Fed targeting 2% inflation—especially given ongoing geopolitical and AI-related risks—we could see a rate hike as early as 2027. Staying informed about these changes is just one way I work to keep your real estate experience as smooth and stress-free as possible.

I've seen the Lake of the Ozarks market shift in countless ways, but this latest trend stands out: New single-family homes across the U.S. are getting smaller—down 11.6%, with the average now at 2,409 sq ft by 2025. Homes under 1,800 sq ft are making up 25% of new sales. Yet, despite the reduced size, the price per square foot has jumped 71.9% to $171.95. These numbers highlight how important it is to have a broker who understands both the value and the nuances of our changing market. My decades of experience help me guide clients through these shifts, ensuring your next move is as smooth and stress-free as possible.

Navigating today’s housing market takes a careful look at both current numbers and long-term trends. According to the Case-Shiller Index, house prices in nominal terms are at all-time highs, but once we adjust for inflation, real prices are now 4.1% below where they stood at the 2022 peak. Interestingly, real prices still sit 8.1% above the 2006 high-water mark—a reminder of the market’s overall upward trajectory, even as we see some cooling recently. Projections suggest real prices may dip further by 2026. With over four decades helping clients buy and sell in the Lake of the Ozarks, I know how important it is to stay informed and approach each transaction with a steady hand, especially when the numbers start to shift. My goal is always to make your real estate experience as smooth and stress-free as possible, no matter where we are in the cycle.

In August, we saw builder confidence for new single-family homes inch up to 35, but it’s clear that economic uncertainty, higher mortgage rates, and increasing costs are still weighing heavily on the market. About 35% of builders responded by cutting prices by 6%, and 63% are offering buyer incentives. Interestingly, while sales picked up in the Midwest, confidence dipped in the South. From my decades of experience here at the Lake of the Ozarks, I know how quickly market dynamics can shift—and how important it is to have a steady hand guiding you through these changes. My goal is always to keep the process as smooth and stress-free as possible, no matter which way the winds are blowing.

With over four decades navigating the Lake of the Ozarks real estate market, I always keep a close eye on the factors influencing our local homebuilding landscape. Recently, a 50% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber has pushed new home construction costs up by more than $10,900—lumber alone now adds $4,900 to each build. Combined with rising wages and ongoing supply challenges, we’re seeing fewer housing starts and a growing shortage of skilled labor. Understanding these shifts is key for anyone considering a new build or purchase, and I’m dedicated to guiding clients through these complexities to ensure your experience remains as smooth and stress-free as possible.