Author: Marty Gum

Existing-home sales across the US have dropped to a 14-month low, dipping just below 4 million at a 3.98M annual pace in mid-Q3—down 2% from the previous month. For buyers, this means a shifting landscape: with a 30-year fixed mortgage averaging close to 7% and inventory growing to 4.9 months of supply, there are now more choices on the market than we've seen in a while. Interestingly, the median price reached $429,100—a new mid-Q3 record—driven largely by the continued strength of higher-priced homes. Rising wages and steady job growth are still fueling demand, but with more listings, buyers are finding better room for negotiation. First-time buyers accounted for 30% of purchases, and cash deals made up 27%, with homes spending an average of 31 days on the market. As someone who’s navigated many changing markets over four decades at the Lake of the Ozarks, I always keep an eye on these national trends to help clients move forward with confidence.

Mortgage costs have reached a 14-month high, with the typical monthly payment now at $2,600 for US buyers by late Q3. Despite these rising costs, median sale prices held steady, ticking up about 2% year-over-year to $399,000. That’s added further pressure to affordability and kept pending sales fairly flat compared to last month and lower than last year. Mortgage-purchase applications have dipped slightly, and while new listings saw a modest month-over-month drop (likely holiday-related), they still remained a bit higher than the same period in 2025. This is a market where seller strategy really counts: about 21% of active listings made price cuts, and sharper pricing consistently attracts more interest—while overpricing can stall momentum. Inventory has seen a slight improvement, with active supply up about 2% year-over-year to 1.5 million homes, bringing supply close to 4 months. Still, we’re not quite at a balanced market. After four decades in the Lake of the Ozarks real estate, I’ve found that staying attuned to these shifts and helping clients navigate pricing and negotiation makes all the difference in smooth, stress-free transactions.

Navigating today’s real estate market takes steady hands and clear insight—especially as buyers face the highest monthly payments seen in 14 months, now averaging $2,600 by late-Q3. Mortgage costs continue to climb, and with national median sale prices holding firm near $399,000 (about 2% higher than last year), affordability remains a real challenge for many. It’s no surprise that pending sales have stayed flat month over month and sit lower than a year ago, while mortgage-purchase applications have dipped slightly. Even new listings slowed down a bit—likely a result of holiday timing—but they’re still modestly above last year's levels. In this kind of environment, a seller’s pricing strategy makes all the difference: about 21% of active listings have cut prices, and homes priced strategically are attracting more attention, while overpricing tends to give buyers pause. On the inventory side, we’re seeing some improvement, with active supply up 2% year over year to 1.5 million homes and about four months of supply—though we’re still not quite at a balanced market. With four decades of experience guiding folks through the Lake of the Ozarks market, I’ve seen firsthand how preparation and the right strategy can make all the difference when affordability is tight and competition is keen.

Lake Ozark — Most Expensive homes for August 2026.

Listings (sorted by price):
1. Listing BDA3580187 — $19,000,000
2. Listing BDA3583882 — $4,400,000
3. Listing BDA3588398 — $3,250,000
4. Listing BDA3588948 — $2,850,000
5. Listing BDA3589192 — $2,850,000
6. Listing BDA3583606 — $2,795,000
7. Listing BDA3589615 — $2,795,000
8. Listing BDA3587903 — $2,700,000
9. Listing BDA3587737 — $2,500,000
10. Listing BDA3587953 — $2,450,000
11. Listing BDA3588280 — $2,375,000
12. Listing BDA3588879 — $2,350,000
13. Listing BDA3586738 — $2,300,000
14. Listing BDA3589596 — $2,250,000
15. Listing BDA3588026 — $2,199,000

Persistent inflation and elevated long-term Treasury yields are making a rapid return to low interest rates less certain.
The Federal Reserve faces competing pressures as policymakers balance inflation risks against signs of weakening economic momentum.
Higher long-term yields could keep borrowing costs elevated for consumers, businesses, housing, and commercial real estate.
Investors may increasingly favor a balanced approach as interest-rate uncertainty, fiscal pressures, and inflation continue influencing financial markets.

We’re seeing a noticeable shift in major housing markets: in Mid-Q3, the price per square foot dropped year-over-year in 36 out of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas. That’s the broadest cooling trend we’ve seen in quite some time. Nationally, prices per square foot were down about 2% from the previous year, continuing a 10-month streak of annual softening. As the quarter wrapped up, momentum slowed further—more sellers lowered their asking prices to meet buyers, narrowing the gap in expectations. Higher mortgage rates are certainly putting pressure on affordability, especially in areas that saw price surges during the pandemic, and many of those markets are now giving back some of their pandemic gains. Inventory levels above pre-pandemic norms are helping this reset. My decades of negotiation in shifting markets have taught me how crucial it is to adjust expectations on both sides, so each transition remains as smooth and stress-free as possible.